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How much luck do you need to win the World Cup?

Investigating the role of random chance in football

As the 2026 World Cup approaches its end, what is the biggest factor in who wins? Is it extraordinary moments of attacking magic? Gritty defensive organisation? Or is it all just a question of luck and random chance?

We look at how mathematicians and analysists make sense of chaos, xG and unpredictability in the beautiful game.

If you've seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

CONTRIBUTORS:

Ian Graham, former Head of Research at Liverpool FC
David Sumpter, Professor of Applied Mathematics at Uppsala University
Luis Nunes Vicente, Mathematician at Lehigh University

CREDITS:

Presenter: Lizzy McNeill
Producer: Josh McMinn
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: Dave O'Neill
Editor: Richard Vadon

Available now

9 minutes

Last on

Sun 19 Jul 202611:50
BBC World Service except East and Southern Africa, Europe and the Middle East & West and Central Africa

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Broadcasts

  • Sat 18 Jul 202605:50
    BBC World Service except Australasia, East and Southern Africa, East Asia & South Asia
  • Sun 19 Jul 202600:50
    BBC World Service Australasia
  • Sun 19 Jul 202605:50
    BBC World Service East and Southern Africa, South Asia & East Asia only
  • Sun 19 Jul 202609:50
    BBC World Service Europe and the Middle East & West and Central Africa only
  • Sun 19 Jul 202611:50
    BBC World Service except East and Southern Africa, Europe and the Middle East & West and Central Africa

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