Ivyago 5 vya mbere bibangamiye isi mu 2026, n'ico bisobanura kuri Afrika
Ahavuye isanamu, (Photo : BOUREIMA HAMA/AFP via Getty Images)
- Umwanditsi, Mamadou Faye
- Igikorwa, Umunyamakuru wa BBC News Afrique
- Yatangajwe
- Igihe co gusoma: iminota 5
Ukutabona uko ibintu bishobora kugenda muri kazoza kuriko kurashinga imizi mu mpande zose z'isi , nk'uko bivugwa mu cegeranyo ca 'World Economic Forum' (WEF), casohotse ku wa 14 Nzero (1) 2026.
Muri iki cegeranyo kigira 21, WEF iragabisha ko isi iriko irangwa cane n'uguhangana gukomeye, ukwicamwo ibice hamwe no gusubira inyuma kw'imigenderanire mpuzamakungu.
Ico cegeranyo gishingiye ku nyishu zatanzwe n'abahinga barenga 1.300 babajijwe mu bushakashatsi bwakozwe. Kirerekana ivyago bishobora kugira ingaruka zikomeye cane ku mibano y'abantu mu myaka iri imbere.
50% vy'abishuye biteze ko, mu myaka ibiri iri imbere, isi izoba iri mu bihe « vy'imidugararo » canke « vy'intureka nyinsi », mu gihe umwaka w'imbere y'aha abavyiyumvira gutyo bari 42%.
Muri iki « gihe gishasha c'uguhiganwa », ni ibihe vyago bitanu bibonwa ko bizoba bikomeye cane gushika mu 2028? Bishobora kugira ingaruka izihe kuri Afrika?
1. Uguhangana gushingiye ku butunzi hagati y'ibihugu
Ahavuye isanamu, Getty Images
Ni co cago ca mbere, haba ku mwaka wa 2026 (aho 18% vy'abahinga bakibona nk'igishobora gutuma haba ingorane zikomeye kw'isi), eka mbere no mu myaka ibiri iri imbere, gushika mu 2028. Iki cago caduze incuro umunani ugereranije n'umwaka uheze.
Ku mugabane wa Afrika, iki cegeranyo kirerekana ibintu bibiri bishobora gutuma ibihugu bigira intege nke mu buryo butaziguye:
- Uguhiganirwa ubutare n'amabuye y'agaciro nkenerwa cane: WEF ibona ko amareta ashobora kwegeranya ububiko bw'ubutare bw'ivyuma n'amabuye y'agaciro bikenewe mu rugendo rwo kwerekeza mu gisata c'amasoko ntanganguvu adahumanya ibidukikije. Ivyo bishobora gutuma haba ingorane z'uko ibihugu birimwo ubwo butunzi bishobora gushirwako igitutu mu vy'ubudandaji, mu vya diplomasi, mbere no mu vya gisirikare. Ivyo vyerekeye cane ibihugu vya Afrika bifise ubutunzi bwinshi bwa cobalt, lithium, umujumbu, n'amabuye adakunze kuboneka.
- Ubwigenge mu bijanye n'ifaranga: Iki cegeranyo kirashimika ko ibihugu bikiri mu nzira y'amajambere bifise ifaranga ridakomeye biri mu bibangamiwe cane n'ukwiyongera kw'ubwoko bw'amafaranga yo ku buhinga bwa none yitwa 'stablecoins'. Bitegekanijwe ko agaciro k'ayo mafaranga gashobora gushika kuri miliyoni 1 220 z'amadolari mu mpera za 2028, kavuye kuri miliyoni 173 z'amadolari mu mpera za 2025. Ivyo bishobora kurushiriza guca intege politike y'ivy'amafaranga mu bihugu vyinshi vya Afrika.
2. Amakuru y'ibinyoma n'ayayovya
Ahavuye isanamu, Getty Images
Ni co cago kiza ubwa kabiri gikomeye cane mu myaka ibiri iri imbere (mbere gisanzwe ari ica kane mu bishobora gutuma isi ihungabana no mu 2026). Icegeranyo kirerekana ko bigenda birushiriza kugorana gutandukanya amakuru y'ukuri n'ibintu vyakozwe n'ubwenge bw'ubukorano (AI), mu gihe abantu bariko baratakaza icizere bafitiye ibinyamakuru n'ibindi bisanzwe bitangaza amakuru.
Ku mugabane wa Afrika, iki ni kimwe mu vyago iki cegeranyo gitangako amakuru atomoye yerekeye umugabane wose kandi ateye amakenga: 73% vy'abantu babajijwe muri Afrika bavuga ko bahangayikishijwe n'ubushobozi bwabo bwo gutandukanya ukuri n'ibinyoma kuri internet, mu gihe ku rwego rw'isi ari 58%.
Iki cegeranyo kivuga kandi ko Afrika iri mu turere aho gukoresha imbuga ngurukanabumenyi mu kuronka amakuru bigenda vyiyongera ningoga cane. Ivyo bituma abantu barushiriza guhura n'iki cago, aho kugabanya ingaruka zaco.
3. Ukwicamwo ibice kw'abantu mu kibano
Iki cago caduze ikibanza kimwe, gishika mu ca 3. N'ubwo icegeranyo kidatanda ibitigiri vyerekeye Afrika, kivuga ko iki cago gifitaniye isano cane n'icago cavuzwe mu kibanza ca kabiri: amakuru y'ibinyoma n'ayayovya atuma abantu bicamwo ibice, ivyo na vyo bigaca bigabanya icizere bafitiye inzego z'igihugu hamwe n'ubushobozi bw'abantu bwo guhangana n'ingorane canke ibiza bikomeye.
4. Ihindagurika ry'ibirere rikabije
Ahavuye isanamu, (Photo by HARUNA YAHAYA/AFP via Getty Images)
Iki ni icago kiza ubwa kane mu bishobora guhanga isi mu myaka ibiri iri imbere. Ariko mu myaka 10 iri imbere ho kizoba kiri mu kibanza ca mbere. Ivyo vyerekana ko World Economic Forum (WEF) ibona ihindagurika ry'ikirere nk'icago gikomeye cane kandi gishobora kugira ingaruka zidasanzwe kw'isi.
Ku mugabane wa Afrika, icegeranyo kirashimika ku kintu gihambaye: ingaruka z'ihindagurika ry'ikirere rikabije ku bikorwa remezo zizoba zikomeye cane mu bihugu bifise amikoro make, kubera ko ubushobozi bwavyo bwo kwitegura no guhangana na zo ari buke.
5. Intambara hagati y'ibihugu
Ahavuye isanamu, Getty Images
Ni icago gishirwa mu kibanza ca gatanu mu myaka ibiri iri imbere (2028), kikaba casubiye inyuma ikibanza kimwe ugereranije n'umwaka uheze, aho cari mu kibanza ca mbere mu vyago vyari biteye ubwoba cane muri ico gihe. Ariko rero, icegeranyo gishimika ko kumanuka kwaco ku rutonde atari ikimenyetso c'uko ico cago kitagiteye impungengenge. Kiracafitaniye isano rikomeye n'uguhangana mu vy'ubutunzi hagati y'ibihugu. Kwongerekana kw'uguhangana kuri kimwe gushobora gutuma n'ikindi kirushiriza gukomera.
Ku mugabane wa Afrika, icegeranyo kirerekana isano ritaziguye hagati y'iki cago n'uguhiganirwa ubutunzi kamere ku rwego rw'isi. Kirerekana ko ibihugu bikomeye biriko birongereza akariro, mu buryo butaziguye, hamwe n'uguhanganira mu turere dufise ubutunzi kamere nkenerwa cane.
Ivyo bigaragarira cane cane mu duce tumwe two muri Afrika turangwamwo amatati, aho hari ubutare n'ibindi bironderwa cane n'abahiganwa ku masoko mpuzamakungu.
