Waa maxay lixda shuruudood ee Iiraan ku xirtay furitaanka Marin-biyoodka Hormuz?

Iiraan iyo Cumaan ayaa labaduba sheegay in wadaxaajoodyada ku saabsan hannaan cusub oo lagu maareeyo maraakiibta maraysa Marin-biyoodka istiraatiijiga ah ee Hormuz ay yihiin kuwo "wanaagsan" oo maraya heer horumarsan. Arrintan ayaa sare u qaaday rajada laga qabo in dib loo bilaabo maraakiibta maraysa marin-biyoodkaas.

Maalmihii u dambeeyay, wadaxaajoodyadu waxay diiradda saarayeen soo jeedin ah in la sameeyo waddo cusub oo mara marin-biyoodka, iyadoo Iiraan iyo Cumaan ay si wadajir ah mas'uul uga noqonayaan maamulkeeda.

Hase yeeshee, xilli rajadu sii xoogaysanaysay, Iiraan waxay ku dhawaaqday dalabyo taxane ah oo ay sheegtay in Maraykanku uu fuliyo ka hor inta aan marin-biyoodka muhiimka ah dib loo furin.

Qaar ka mid ah dalabyadan waxay ka gudbayaan wixii lagu qeexay heshiis-is-afgaradkii ay Maraykanka iyo Iiraan gaareen 17-kii Juun, halka qaar kalena ay yihiin dalabyo hore loo soo bandhigay, balse markan si toos ah loogu xiray dib u furista Marin-biyoodka Hormuz iyo isu-socodka maraakiibta.

Waa maxay shuruudahani? Maraykankuna ma fulin karaa?

War ay baahisay idaacadda dowladda Iiraan, Mohammad Baqer Zolghadr, oo hore u ahaa xoghayaha Golaha Sare ee Amniga Qaranka Iiraan, haddana ah la-taliyaha Hoggaamiyaha Sare, ayaa uga digay Maraykanka inuu "saxo" hab-dhaqankiisa isla markaana uu buuxiyo dhowr dalab.

Warbixintu waxay caddeysay in "saxidda hab-dhaqanka" ay ka dhigan tahay qodobadan:

1. In aan Iiraan loo hanjabin, laguna xadgudbin caqiidada dadka reer Iiraan

Iiraan waxay sheegtay in Maraykanku joojiyo hanjabaadaha loo jeedinayo, isla markaana uu bixiyo dammaanad ah in hanjabaadaha noocaas ah aan dib loogu celin doonin.

Tani inta badan waa dalab siyaasadeed iyo mid amni. Inkastoo heshiisyada xabbad-joojintu ay si dadban uga baahan yihiin labada dhinac inay is-xakameeyaan, dalabka cad ee dammaanad-qaadka ka dhanka ah hanjabaadaha mustaqbalka wuxuu u muuqdaa shuruud istiraatiiji ah oo ka ballaaran qodob si toos ah loogu qoray heshiiskii ku-meelgaarka ahaa

2. In si buuxda loo soo afjaro dagaalka iyo gardarrada ka dhanka ah Iiraan iyo xulafadeeda Lubnaan, Falastiin, Yemen iyo Ciraaq

Iiraan ayaa ku adkaysanaysa in la joojiyo hawlgallada milatari ee aan iyada oo keliya lagu beegsan, balse sidoo kale lagu joojiyo xulafadeeda iyo kooxaha xiriirka la leh ee ku sugan Lubnaan, Falastiin, Yemen iyo Ciraaq.

Inkasta oo heshiis-is-afgaradkii Maraykanka iyo Iiraan ee Juun lagu xusay "dhammaan goobaha dagaalka, oo ay ku jirto Lubnaan," haddana dalabka hadda la soo bandhigay wuxuu si cad u xusay dalal kale, taas oo si wax ku ool ah u dalbanaysa dammaanado amni oo goboleed oo ka ballaaran.

3. In la qaado xannibaadda badda, lana soo saaro ciidamada badda iyo cirka ee Maraykanka ee ku dhow Iiraan

Sida ku cad heshiis-is-afgaradkii Maraykanka iyo Iiraan ee la saxiixay Juun, Maraykanka waxaa laga rabay inuu xannibaadda soo afjaro muddo 30 maalmood gudahood ah.

Hase yeeshee, qodobkaasi si toos ah uguma xirnayn dib u furista Marin-biyoodka Hormuz.

4. In si buuxda loo bixiyo magdhowga khasaaraha Iiraan ka soo gaaray labada "dagaal ee gardarrada ah"

Dalabkan ayaa tixraacayaa dagaalkii 12-ka maalmood socday ee 2025 iyo dagaalkii dhowaan dhacay.

Waxaa la filayay in habka magdhowga looga wada hadlo wadaxaajoodyada heshiis kama dambays ah oo ka dambeeya heshiis-is-afgaradkii Juun lagu saxiixay.

Hase yeeshee, Tehran hadda waxay si cad u xiriirinaysaa bixinta magdhowga iyo dib u furista Marin-biyoodka Hormuz.

5. In la qaado cunaqabataynta "aan caddaaladda ahayn ee sharci-darrada ah" ee lagu soo rogay dadka reer Iiraan

In la dejiyo jadwal lagu fududeynayo ama lagu qaadayo cunaqabataynta ayaa horey loogu qorsheeyay inay qayb ka noqoto wadaxaajoodyada lagu doonayo in lagu gaaro heshiis kama dambays ah.

Sidaas darteed, Iiraan arrin gebi ahaanba cusub masoo bandhigayso.

Waxa cusub ayaa ah inay si cad ugu adkaysanayso in fududeynta cunaqabataynta lagu xiro dib u furista Marin-biyoodka Hormuz.

6. In si shuruud la'aan ah loo sii daayo hantida dadka reer Iiraan ee la xannibay ama "la dhacay"

Dalabkani sidoo kale ma aha mid cusub. Arrinta ku saabsan sii-daynta hantida Iiraan ee dibadda taal, balse la xannibay ama la qaboojiyay, ayaa horey looga wada hadlay.

Dalabyada Iiraan maxay ka dhigan yihiin?

Lixdan shuruudood waxay ballaarinayaan baaxadda dalabyada Iiraan ay hadda sheegtay in la buuxiyo ka hor inta aan marin-biyoodka dib loo furin.

Sebastian Usher, oo ah falanqeeyaha Bariga Dhexe ee BBC, wuxuu aaminsan yahay in arrintani muujinayso in mowqifka Iiraan uu adkaaday. Wuxuu sheegay in shuruudahani ay horey ugu jireen heshiis-is-afgaradka, balse waqtiga iyo habka loo fulinayo ay hadda u muuqdaan kuwo aad uga duwan.

Wuxuu intaas ku daray in Tehran laga yaabo inay isu aragto inay ku jirto meel gorgortan oo ka xoog badan, maadaama Marin-biyoodka Hormuz "inta badan uu weli xiran yahay."

Dhanka kale, Trita Parsi, oo ah ku-xigeenka madaxa fulinta Machadka Quincy, oo ah hay'ad cilmi-baaris oo Maraykan ah oo ku takhasustay siyaasadda arrimaha dibadda, ayaa barnaamijka "Weekend" ee BBC World Radio u sheegay inuu aaminsan yahay in reer Iiraan laftoodu ay garwaaqsan yihiin in mowqifyadan la buunbuuniyay, ayna u badan tahay inay dib uga laabtaan.

Wuxuu yiri: "Waxa si fagaare ah loo sheego khasab ma aha inuu ka tarjumayo waxa ka dhacaya miiska wadaxaajoodyada."

Parsi wuxuu sidoo kale soo jeediyay in dalabyadani ay qayb ka noqon karaan xeelad gorgortan. Wuxuu sheegay inay suurtagal tahay in Iiraan ay si fudud isku dayayso inay geeddi-socodka sii dheereyso.

Wuxuu intaas ku daray in qaar ka mid ah kooxaha mayalka adag ee ku jira nidaamka Iiraan ay aaminsan yihiin in Tehran ay heshiis-is-afgaradkii Juun si degdeg ah u aqbashay.

Xilligaas, heshiisku wuxuu jiray oo keliya dhowr maalmood ka hor inta uusan burburin, iyadoo weerarro labada dhinac ah ay dib u bilaabmeen wax yar kaddib markii la saxiixay.

Parsi wuxuu sheegay in qaar ka mid ah dadka Iiraan ay aaminsan yihiin in haddii wadaxaajoodyadii la sii wadi lahaa muddo dheer, taas oo keeni lahayd koror kale oo ku yimaadda qiimaha shidaalka iyo dhaawac dheeraad ah oo soo gaara dhaqaalaha caalamka, Madaxweyne Trump laga yaabo inuusan si degdeg ah u amrin duqeymaha lagu beegsanayo bartilmaameedyada Iiraan.

Sida muuqata, Tehran ma doonayso inay mar kale ku celiso waxa ay dadkani u arkaan "khalad."

Si kastaba ha ahaatee, Parsi wuxuu weli filayaa in heshiis ku saabsan Marin-biyoodka Hormuz lagu gaari karo maalmo gudahood.

Dadka ku sugaya maraakiibta ama si dhow ula socda isbeddellada qiimaha shidaalka ayaa rajaynaya in saadaashiisu ay dhab noqoto.