Monthly Outlook

There will be changeable patterns through the coming four weeks. High pressure should lead to a drier trend next week, before a week of more low pressure dominance with some wet and windy conditions.

Later in October high pressure may become more influential again. Temperatures will be above or at least near the seasonal average for much of the time through the next four weeks, but when it is clear and calm some rather chilly nights are possible.

Drier for many at the weekend. Warmer than average

A band of rain will clear eastwards on Wednesday, with a mixture of sunshine and showers following later and into Thursday while winds ease somewhat. It will turn less warm but temperatures should still be a little above, or at least close to, the seasonal average.

More widespread rain will move in from the west overnight and through to Friday, with increasing winds. At the same time a ridge of high pressure to the south may keep southern and eastern England drier.

By the weekend high pressure may become more extensive, with a drier and calmer trend across much of England and Wales. However, breezier weather with showery outbreaks of rain and may return to parts of Northern Ireland and Scotland by Sunday, most likely the north and west.

Across England and Wales there will be chances of overnight and early morning mist or fog patches with lower nighttime temperatures than currently, but afternoon temperatures should still be near to a little above normal.

Below-normal rainfall with high pressure nearby

Next week there are signs of high pressure becoming more dominant for a few days, producing a drier spell of weather in most areas. Daytime temperatures should be near or higher than the October average but some cool or chilly nights and early mornings are possible with patches of mist or fog.

However, the exact position of this possible high pressure will determine precipitation patterns. There may be a couple of frontal systems brushing past to bring a chance of rain to northern or north-western areas. Some of this rain could edge farther south is high pressure weakens at all, which may be a possibility later in the week.

Many areas should be drier than average overall for the week, but there are chances of being closer to or above normal the farther north you are.

Wetter for a time. Drier again later

Low pressure systems may become more common across the UK around the middle of October, so a wetter week may be in store between about the 12th and 19th of October. There should be higher chances of periodic rain alongside possibly stronger winds at times, with rainfall amounts potentially above normal or at least near average. The western and northern UK may be wetter than southern and eastern areas.

Despite the rain, it is more probable than not that temperatures will mostly stay above the October average.

The second half of the month has some signs of high pressure reasserting itself. So another drier than average period could be in store, although that does not preclude a little rain here and there.

When nights are clear and still there could again be chances of fog patches and chillier conditions, but daytime temperatures should mostly be near or higher than the long-term average. There is no sign yet of any notably cold outbreaks.

In Friday's update we should still see mostly above-average temperatures in the forecast. The outlook will extend to the turn of the month, when it might show another wetter trend.