Monthly Outlook

The rest of this week will be unsettled, and cool but high pressure should become more dominant next week, leading to drier and warmer conditions. The second half of June should be warmer than average in most areas. Some hot days are possible in places but there could be chances of thundery outbreaks developing.

Cool, wet and windy at times

The rest of this week will be rather cool and very unsettled, with a sequence of low-pressure circulations and frontal systems passing across the UK.

Wednesday and Thursday will be wet and windy everywhere, with some locally heavy or thundery bursts of rain. Some areas will become more showery on Thursday, but any brighter intervals will probably be short lived.

Friday should become less breezy and may have a better chance of some sunny spells in between sharp and scattered showers. Temperatures are going to fall near or even a shade below the early-June average; but with south-west to westerly winds, eastern areas may be a little warmer.

At the weekend, winds should return to more of a southerly direction, so a slight uptick in temperatures is probable for most areas. The track of low-pressure systems will probably start to shift further north, although associated fronts will still take showers or lengthier periods of rain across most regions of the UK.

However, the south and east could start to become drier by Sunday, with the bulk of the rain beginning to target the north-west.

Becoming warmer and drier in most areas

The most likely outcome in the second week of June is for high pressure to build from the south-west and south, and eventually to become established near to or over the UK.

The first half of the week may stay unsettled with further rain or showers, but as high pressure builds it should push the main frontal boundary further north. As a result, drier than normal conditions should develop, at least across much of England and Wales.

Some rainfall cannot be ruled out anywhere but parts of the north-west, particularly Scotland and Northern Ireland, could remain wetter. Precipitation could be at least near average here, with temperatures a little suppressed at times.

Most other areas should stay warmer than normal. One risk to this forecast is for a different alignment of high pressure - to the west or north - bringing some cooler flows, or for low pressure to remain closer by, resulting to wetter and cooler weather. Combined, these cooler possibilities have about a 30% chance.

Warmer and drier than normal

After the middle of June, it looks like high pressure should often be present across the UK. This should promote warm conditions with temperatures above the early-summer average in most areas and potentially well above on some days, particularly across England and Wales. It should also be drier than normal in most areas.

There is a possibility that pressure may also build across Scandinavia as well, reinforcing warmer flows; and if high pressure weakens or nudges northwards across the UK then the door could open sufficiently for low pressure systems to creep in from the south. This would bring an increasing chance of heavy showers and thunderstorms spreading northwards by the end of June.

Again, the exact position of the expected high pressure remains important: if it were to become centred further north, north-west, or west, then cooler weather would be possible.

In Friday's outlook, we will see if the return to high pressure dominance still looks probable, and we will be able to take a look into early July.