Monthly Outlook

There will be decreasing chances of excessive heat in the next couple of weeks, but temperatures are still most likely to stay above or at least near average.

Although drier than normal initially, a changeable period may occur by early August before more settled and potentially very warm weather returns.

Still drier and warmer than normal in most areas

The extreme heat that some areas have experienced will take a break. The coming week will have reduced warmth, but temperatures will still average out above or at least near normal for this period, and in some areas of England and Wales afternoon highs could still reach the mid to upper 20s Celsius at times. Windward areas will be cooler, and with high pressure to the west of the UK there will be mainly north-west to north-easterly breezes.

Saturday will have some drizzle or light rain over Scotland and Northern Ireland, chiefly northern Scotland, but drier weather is likely over England and Wales, with the south having most sunshine. Isolated sharp showers may break out over Wales and northern and western England, chiefly during Saturday. Many areas will be dry throughout the weekend, however, especially on Sunday.

With high pressure continuing to exert its influence, much of the UK should still have plenty of dry weather through the coming week but there could be a little patchy rain or showers drifting southwards at times, chiefly across Scotland and Northern Ireland. There is a greater chance of rain pushing in from the north-west on Atlantic fronts later in the week as high pressure starts to weaken for a while.

Changeable. Temperatures still above or near normal

From the end of July into the start of August, a similar broad pattern will most probably continue, with high pressure anomalies to the west and south-west, occasionally extending a ridge across the UK. However, it should weaken enough at times to allow Atlantic low pressure and frontal systems to bring periodic bands of rain, interspersed with brighter but showery episodes.

Wettest conditions will likely be across the northern UK, particularly Scotland, with winds becoming stronger at times than recently. Rainfall amounts will be lower for the week elsewhere, and may be below average across southern England, although it is unlikely to be persistently dry, with chances of occasional passing rain bands or showers. Some very warm days are still possible in the south, and despite the rain chances, temperatures elsewhere should overall be above or at least near normal.

Becoming drier and warm as high pressure rebuilds

Similar conditions may persist for a while but there are signs that high pressure may return more strongly across the UK before mid-August. For a while, the northern UK may stay rather wet, particularly Scotland, but as high pressure starts to expand there should be a northward shift of Atlantic low pressure and frontal systems, with much of the rest of the UK becoming drier than average.

As time goes by, this drier weather should continue to expand, and most areas should end up with below-average rainfall through the middle of the month. Nevertheless, occasional chances of showers or thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Temperatures should be above normal with some very warm days possible.

Long-range models and other signals have some reasonable agreement, so this is the most likely outcome but at this range confidence cannot be high.

In Tuesday's outlook, we will re-examine the chances of a more changeable period by late July, and see if there are still consistent signs for more settled weather to return before mid-August.