You’re viewing a text-only version of this website that uses less data. View the main version of the website including all images and videos.
Wetin dey inside di US-Iran deal - and wetin fit affect am?
- Author, Luis Barrucho
- Role, BBC World Service
- Published
- Read am in 7 mins
Afta plenty weeks of tok-tok, US and Iran don sign one initial agreement wey go extend di ceasefire between di two countries, wey don dey in effect now.
On Wednesday, Senior US officials bin read out one 14-paragraph memorandum of understanding to tori pipo wey include BBC.
US President Donald Trump and Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian sign di agreement ahead of schedule.
Na on Friday dem for formally sign am for Switzerland – wey go make way for dem to reach a "final deal" within "a maximum of 60 days, wey dem still fit extend wit mutual consent."
President Donald Trump formally sign di deal – wey go reopen di pivotal Strait of Hormuz – as e dey attend di G7 summit for Evian-les-Bains for France.
For inside di 14-point agreement, wey dey known as Memorandum of Understanding, di commitments go begin wit lifting di US naval blockade, restore shipping through di Strait of Hormuz, and negotiate di lifting of "all types of sanctions" on Iran.
Di document also outline plans for one fund of at least $300bn (£224bn) for Iran reconstruction and economic development, plus one renewed pledge from Tehran say dem no go develop nuclear weapon.
Trump warn say dis preliminary deal "no be final" and e say US fit "return to dropping bombs" if e fail.
Iran parliamentary speaker and key negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, tell state media say im still no trust US, and Iran "finger dey on di trigger".
Hia na three of di biggest threats wey fit scata di negotiations, according to experts.
Israel Lebanon campaign
Di two kontris don declare "immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, also for Lebanon", Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, wey bin act as one of di main mediators, during di announcement of di initial deal tok.
Di agreement, also clearly include Lebanon, to ensure "dia territorial integrity and sovereignty".
However, Israel don continue dia strikes on Lebanon – even afta Trump tok say im Israeli counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu suppose dey "more responsible wit respect to Lebanon" for di G7 Summit for France.
Hezbollah, di militant group wey Iran dey support for Lebanon, also echo dis position.
Iran don assure dia ally say dem go demand di full withdrawal of Israeli troops from Lebanon for di next phase of di discussion, Hezbollah media relations office tell Reuters.
Israel don also clearly show say dem no see demsefs as pipo wey must follow how Iran interpret di agreement. Defence Minister Israel Katz tok say Israeli forces go still dey di security zones for Lebanon "without any time limit" and warn say dem go "strike wit full force" if Iran attack Israel sake of Lebanon.
On Wednesday, Israeli jets bin strike di Nabatieh al-Fawqa area and di outskirts of neighbouring Kfar Tebnit, Lebanon state-run National News Agency (NNA) tok.
Also, US officials tok say even though Lebanon dey covered by di ceasefire framework, di withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory no be part of di condition of di deal. Israel go retain di right to self-defence, dem add.
But Iran don tok say di end of di war for Lebanon na "inseparable part of di agreement to end di war".
Tel Aviv na di "main problem" for di peace efforts, Dr H.A. Hellyer, one political scientist for di Royal United Services Institute, one UK think-tank tok.
"Israeli military adventurism, weda na to target Iran or through di ongoing devastation for Lebanon, e represent di single greatest threat to diplomatic progress," e argue.
Di process fit collapse bifor "substantive negotiations on di nuclear file start" if Tehran dey drawn into direct confrontation, Hellyer tok.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun don welcome di preliminary deal, e say e hope say e go translate into "practical steps wey go put definitive end to di cycle of violence".
For Lebanon, di consequences of di war dey devastating. More dan 3,700 pipo don die, wit around one million pipo displaced and large parts of di south dey suffer widespread destruction.
Iran nuclear programme
Anoda sticking point na Iran enriched uranium, even though Trump don say dem no dey rush to seize am.
According to di International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran get accumulated around 400kg of uranium enriched to 60% by last year. For a nuclear weapon, the enrichment level dey about 90%.
Tehran don consistently maintain say dia nuclear programme dey peaceful and don again tok for di agreement say dem no dey try to develop nuclear weapons.
However, key questions – wey include di treatment of existing enriched material – dey left to one final deal wey dem neva negotiate.
Both sides don agree in principle to decide how to deal wit di stockpiled enriched material. At minimum, dem go "downblend" di unranium – wey mean say dem go dilute – am on site under di supervision of di IAEA.
Under di 2015 nuclear deal wey President Barack Obama negotiate, Tehran limit enrichment to 3.67%. Afta di US withdrawal for 2018 - during Trump first term - Iran expand dia nuclear programme well-well.
Di president go "likely start military operations again" if e feel say Iran dey enrich weapon-grade uranium again, Darin Selnick, di former deputy chief of staff for US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, tell BBC Radio 4 Today programme.
For now, di two sides dey expected to maintain "di status quo" during di 60-day negotiating period: Iran no go expand dia nuclear activities, while US go stop to dey impose new sanctions or increasing dia military presence for di region.
Strait of Hormuz
Di agreement also dey intended to reopen di Strait of Hormuz, wey don come to a grinding halt since February. Bifor di war, about 20% of global oil and gas supplies dey pass through dis key shipping route.
Dem say di waterway go reopen following di signing of di deal on Friday, as full operations dey expected within 30 days as dem dey clear technical and security obstacles, wey include di demining wey Iran carry out.
Di agreement say di strait go remain toll-free for an initial 60-day period, "from di Persian Gulf to di Sea of Oman and vice versa".
E add say Iran go discuss wit Oman and oda Gulf states on di waterway future administration and maritime services, in line wit international law.
Dis go open di possibility say some fees fit bicom reality for future.
Tehran don already tok say dem want big in managing di strait. Iran Foreign Ministry tok-tok pesin, Esmaeil Baghaei, say dem go charge vessels wey dey pass di strait service fee. However, e neva clear wetin e go cover.
Tolls for passage no dey allowed under international law, although dem dey allow charges for specific services.
However, US side don express confidence say di strait go remain free of tolls afta di negotiations.
US official don tok say Iran fit try to force dia position, but Gulf states no go accept any arrangement wey go limit toll-free access.
Trump say Iran go act wit "common sense" and no go compulsory fees, as di move fit further risk military escalation. US also believe say Gulf states go "neva" accept a future system wey go involve tolls.
Practical questions also remain.
Clearing mines fit also take "weeks to months," retired US Navy Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery tell BBC.
Shipping companies dey likely to proceed cautiously until dem dey convinced say di ceasefire go hold.
"E go take extremely brave captain to transit through di Strait of Hormuz, given di current state," Martin Kelly of crisis management firm EOS Risk Group tell BBC Verify.
"Di hard work neva start," e add.