Eight of di 10 most populous kontris no dey for di 2026 World Cup - Why?

Disorder start to dey happun for di gathering wia fans gada on 17 June, wen Argentina star Lionel Messi score im first 2026 Fifa World Cup goal by coolly slotting di ball pass di Algerian goalkeeper.

But no Argentine dey for di crowd: di fans dey jump up and down - many of dem dey wear di famous albiceleste (white and sky blue) shirt - na local pipo for one of di many open-air watch parties for Bangladesh capital, Dhaka.

Cities for India and Indonesia too don host similar street gatherings passionately.

Dem don adopt Messi and im countrymen as dia own national team wey dey always fail to qualify for di World Cup.

Out of di 10 most populated countries for di world, only two don make am to di current tournament (di United States and Brazil). Two odas (Russia and Nigeria) don appear for numerous previous editions.

China and Indonesia don participate no be only once for di most popular sporting event for di planet.

India (di most populous nation), Bangladesh, Ethiopia and Pakistan don just dey dream to join di party - even though India technically qualify for di 1950 World Cup for Brazil, but withdraw less dan one month bifor di tournament.

"E dey simply unacceptable say kontri wit millions of football fans dey lag so far behind for football," Bangladeshi actor, writer and football fan Audite Karim tell di BBC.

So why be say di population size na such poor guide to football success?

Size really matter?

For theory, di larget di population of di kontri, di more dem suppose get pipo wey go fit play sports wey dem fit recruit.

Seven from di eight kontris wey don eva win di World Cup (Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain) get di large population.

Na only Uruguay dey expectional - more on dem later.

However, population size na part of di important factors, na wetin British scholar and economist Stefan Szymanski tok.

"Football dey similar to how kontris economy dey run. For dem to dey work well, you need pipo. But you go still need capital and better infrastructure," Szymanski wey be di co-write Soccernomics, best-selling book wey dey analyses data to examine wetin make sports dey succeed or fail.

"For football, dat one mean say you need training facilities and find talent."

Szymanski observe say most football nations wey dey successful get one common tin, wealth.

For Soccernomics, Szymanski and co-author Simon Kuper find say kontris need "at least $15,000 yearly for pesin to fit win any trophy".

But Brazil and Argentina, wey average income per capita dey below dis threshold, and dem don win eight World Cup titles togada.

Dat, according to British economist, show di importance of di third factor, know-how.

"And dat one come wit experience. Di nations wey don win World Cup na di ones wey dey dominate for di game 100 years ago, bifor colonialism end."

Game of catch-up

For plain terms, na successful football kontris, including di ones wit regular participation for tournament like World Cup, na dem don play plenti game for history, especially for regions wit higher levels of competition like South America and Europe.

Dis go fit explain why Uruguay, wey get 3.5 million pipo, fit win two World Cups (1930 and 1950). La Celeste first international game - wey dem lose 6-0 to Argentina - for 1902, 12 years bifor Brazil play dia first representative game.

African and South Asian nations, wey don dey dey exist for shorter time or wia football develop later, don work hard to try catch up.

Some don shine: Morocco, wey don dey independent from Spain and France since 1956, na di only African kontri wey don reach World Cup semi-final for Qatar 2022. South Korea become di only Asian nation wey don eva finish for top four, as co-host for 2002.

"But we go see oda kontris like Indonesia, India, Bangladesh, and odas wey no dey catch up," Szymanski tok. Di economist say dis kontris dey struggle due to lack of resources and capabilities. But even if dem get more investment e believe say dem go still dey struggle wit know-how.

Ethiopia trouble

Ethiopia neva qualify for di World Cup. Dem win di African Cup of Nations for 1962, but di best chance wey dem get to enta di main event na for 2014 African qualifiers: Ethiopia don reach di final round of qualifying but Nigeria beat dem for two legs.

Currently, Ethiopian football dey deal wit wetin local media dey call serious underinvestment for di game. One example be say, dis season of di kontri professional league don suffer from shortage of suitable stadiums to host games.

"Dis season, we don play more dan 380 matches wit only three approve stadiums," Ethiopian Premier League Chief Executive Officer Kifle Seife tok for The Reporter newspaper on 27 June.

Di shortage also affect di men national team, wey dey play dem home matches for di African qualifiers for Morocco.

Cricket: na obstacle or na excuse for South Asia?

Some kontris na also victims of dia success for oda sports: India na one of di most dominant cricket nations for di world and dem professional league, di IPL, na di richest for di world.

Dis, according to former India international Shyam Thapa, dey cause serious difficulties for recruitment. Di success of di IPL , e tok, don make middle-class and upper-middle-class parents to push dia children away from football towards cricket.

"Dem [di parents] need to understand say e go be get beta money if dem fit make career for football too," Thapa tell BBC News.

Audite Karim, however, point out say Australia and New Zealand dey develop for football and dem go make am to di World Cup, even though say dem be cricket powerhouse.

"Di popularity of cricket na just excuse," she tok about Bangladesh, wey still love di game.

"We no get di preparation and structure wey we need for di kontri to play for di [football] World Cup."

China na sleeping giant?

China case dey confuse. For recent decades, dem don turn one of di successful kontris for Olympic history. But dis no be di same for men football.

"No reason [in theory] wey China no fit produce world-class footballers," Mark Dreyer, sabi pesin for Beijing football, tok.

"Di main problem be say for China, everitin na state control and na top-down. You need pipo wey sabi football to make football decisions, but too much politics dey inside."

China never show face for World Cup since 2002, depsite say dem don invest heavily for di game since di 2010s - wey include many names from South America and Europe make dem join di league to elevate am to standard.

Like China, Indonesia don taste World Cup action bifor - for 1938, wen dem compete as Dutch East Indies, wey be colony of Netherlands.

Di South East Asian team reach final qualifying round for 2026, but dat decision na wen dem bring in European players wey get Indonesian roots instead of trusting local players.

"At times, dem get eight or nine European-born players for Indonesia starting XI," Jerome Wirawan, News Editor for BBC Indonesia tok.

Pakistan and Bangladesh lose during di Asian qualifiers for group stage, dem no win for six matches. Dem also ban Pakistan from international football three times by Fifa between 2017 and 2025 becos of political wahala for dia governing body.

Enjoying di party - one way or anoda

So, for football fans of many kontris, World Cup glory fit look far.

Meanwhile, Karim tok say, make we just enjoy di party.

"As e be now, I no see any chance to watch Bangladesh play for World Cup for my lifetime."

"But di football fans for Bangladesh go still wan enjoy every small joy wey dey come wit di tournament."