Why didn't Reform take more seats in Hertfordshire?

7 hours ago

Martin HeathHertfordshire political reporter

BBC Four men, one in a blue suit, one in a black suit, one in a dark jacket and a trilby hat, and one with a dark casual jacket over a grey T-shirt, are talking in a huddle. Reform UK rosettes are visible on three of them. One has dark hair and a beard and is looking at the camera. — Reform UK candidates looked thoughtful as the election counts wore on

No-one could deny that Reform UK has emerged as the clear winner of the local elections in England.

It picked up nearly 1,500 seats, more than any other party, and took control of 14 councils, including Suffolk and Essex.

But in Hertfordshire, only Stevenage saw a haul of council seats for Nigel Farage's party.

So, why, if it can triumph in Essex, was Reform not as successful across Hertfordshire?

Even grabbing nine seats in Stevenage was not enough to put Reform anywhere near taking control of the council from Labour.

Mathematically, it would have been difficult for the party to do much better.

Stevenage elects roughly a third of its councillors each year, so only 14 seats out of 39 were contested on Thursday.

So Reform's nine-seat haul was noteworthy and firmly establishes it as the largest opposition party.

The system of voting in thirds, with no election every fourth year, is in place in all six of the areas which opened their polling stations on Thursday.

PA Media A black plastic crate with BALLOT BOX written in white letters on the side. A hand is putting a folded ballot paper through the slot into the box. — In many areas, a third of councillors are elected each year

The four-year cycle has existed for many years.

Some argue that it increases accountability because voters can express a view on how their area is being run every year.

It could also be said that it avoids the disruption of having all councillors campaigning for votes at the same time.

But it makes it more difficult for opposition parties to overturn an overall majority - every council won by Reform UK this year elects all members in one go.

Various think tanks are urging the government to introduce "all-out" elections every four years, and every unitary authority created since 2009 has them.

For now, though, Labour could afford to lose nine seats in Stevenage and still have a comfortable overall majority.

Martin Heath/BBC Craig Stanbury with short brown hair and beard, wearing a blue and black anorak and grey shirt, standing next to Claire Hunt, with long blonde hair and wearing a black T-shirt. They are both looking at the camera in a bar-like room with a TV on the wall behind them. — Craig Stanbury with fellow Tory candidate Claire Hunt, believes local campaigning helped beat Reform UK

Elsewhere in Hertfordshire, Reform managed three gains in Welwyn Hatfield and two in Broxbourne.

None of the party's candidates were elected in St Albans, Three Rivers or Watford.

Victorious Conservatives in Welwyn Hatfield believe one reason Reform did not make more headway in their area was the Conservative tactic of concentrating on local issues, not trying to compete with Reform's national policies.

Craig Stanbury said: "We made clear we can't satisfy the Reform requirements, so we've campaigned on speeding and burglaries in Brookmans Park, potholes, HMOs, protecting the encroachment and development on the green belt, which is really important to the people I now represent."

Nicola Haseler/BBC Liam Morrell-Phillips with short brown hair and beard, wearing a light purple jacket and yellow shirt, with people behind him at an election count. The room has yellow walls and beige curtains. — Reform UK's Liam Morrell-Phillips believed existing Reform councillors had shown that they care about residents

But Liam Morrell-Phillips, who won in Stevenage for Reform, believes a campaign based on issues close to home was behind his party's success in that borough.

He said: "I've really tried and made an effort to speak to as many residents as possible."

He added that two existing Reform councillors had proposed an alternative budget which avoided the need to increase council tax, a move which may have helped his campaign.

Martin Heath/BBC Mason Humberstone with very short dark hair and glasses, smiling at the camera and wearing a black jacket with a Union Jack badge. He is standing by a burger van in Stevenage town centre. — Mason Humberstone defected to Reform from Labour, but failed to get his seat back

One insight into the electorate's thinking might come from the story of Mason Humberstone, who defected from Labour to Reform in 2025.

He had hoped that his supporters would follow him to his new party, but they did not.

He lost out to the Labour candidate by 33 votes.

Perhaps his socialist history put Reform voters off, while his decision to quit Labour may have deterred that party's supporters from voting for him.

It suggests attitudes towards particular candidates may have affected Reform's performance in Hertfordshire.

Getty Images A double decker bus coloured purple with a large picture of Nigel Farage's face on the side, with the slogan "We want our country back - vote to leave on June 23rd". It is driving past a crowd of people, mainly photographers, in a London street which has three-storey brick buildings on the opposite side of the road. — Nigel Farage campaigning for Brexit before the EU referendum

An event that took place a decade ago might provide another clue about the way some voters in Hertfordshire may feel about Reform UK.

The party's leader, Nigel Farage, championed the Brexit cause before the EU referendum of 2016.

Many of the councils won by his party were in areas which voted to leave the EU, including Thurrock, where the 72% Brexit vote was the fourth highest in the country.

Although most areas of Hertfordshire also voted to withdraw from the EU, many did so by a very narrow margin, such as the 50.3% seen in Watford.

On the other hand, two thirds of the population in St Albans wanted to stay.

It is possible that, 10 years on, attitudes to Euroscepticism still influenced the vote.

So, Reform UK's performance in Hertfordshire could be put down to factors including individual candidates' backstories, Brexit and the voting system.

It is something for all the parties to chew over once they have recovered from this remarkable election.

Reform UK has been contacted for comment.

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