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Fears hospitals will struggle to cope this winter

Victoria WaltonOxfordshire political reporter
PA Media A picture of the John Radcliffe Hospital in Oxford. It is blue and grey, are there are cars and ambulances parked in front of it.PA Media
The John Radcliffe Hospital saw 8% more people this summer than in previous years

Senior health leaders say they are in a worse position than usual to deal with the anticipated busy winter ahead.

At a meeting on Thursday, Louise Johnson, deputy director of urgent and emergency care at Oxford University Hospitals NHS Trust said it had been a "very, very difficult summer" giving staff no time to "decompress and recover" from the previous winter.

It means the usual efforts to reduce the number of patients staying in hospital, in preparation for the expected influx of people during the autumn and winter, has not been achieved as in previous years.

Johnson told the Health Overview Scrutiny Committee: "We are concerned about the position we have found ourselves in."

Winter is always a busier time for the NHS, with more cases of respiratory infections, and trips and falls as the temperatures drop.

But the summer can provide some time for hospitals to prepare, by moving people out of hospital more quickly and reducing the number of beds, in preparation for a gradual increase over the autumn.

Johnson said this approach has "put us in a much stronger position to encounter the winter pressures" over the last two years, but they have been unable to do it this year.

Statistics show the John Radcliffe Hospital saw an 8% rise in people seeking treatment during June and July.

Similar peaks were recorded at the Horton General Hospital in Banbury, in April and May, with people feeling the effects of the hot summer weather.

Twelve people are gathered around desks, looking in at each other. There are screens on the wall for people to join the meeting remotely.
Oxford University Hospitals NHS Trust gave an update on winter pressures to a health committee meeting this week.

Johnson also said patients were going to hospital with more complex needs, making it harder to discharge them directly home.

It has meant Oxfordshire's hospitals have been operating at OPEL 3 for consecutive days this summer - the second highest level of concern for hospitals where demand exceeds capacity and patient safety may be at risk.

The highest level is OPEL 4, which has only been reached once over the last two winters. According to Johnson, she expects hospitals to hit this limit again this winter.

But while concerns exist over the hospitals' ability to cope with the number of people going in for treatment, Oxford University Hospitals lead the south east in terms of discharge rates, easing the pressure on bed space.

Felicity Taylor-Drewe is chair of the Oxfordshire urgent and emergency care board and has urged people to do what they can to help take extra pressure off the NHS over the next few months.

"As always, we'd ask people to prepare for winter – it's really important that people who are eligible for the flu jab and any other vaccinations get them. They're one of the best ways of keeping yourself and those around you safe over winter.

"We'd also ask that people choose their healthcare services wisely – Emergency Departments are for life-threatening conditions, and often services closer to home such as your local pharmacy or GP can help."

More services will be provided outside of hospital settings, where possible, including Hospital@Home support, she said.